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必威数字模块 纽约大学教授:美政策利率接近或略低于3%将成新常态

2020-01-09 09:19:08来源:admin

必威数字模块 纽约大学教授:美政策利率接近或略低于3%将成新常态


纽约大学斯特恩商学院教授鲁里埃尔•鲁比尼(Nouriel Roubini)周一发表观点文章称,克拉里达加入美联储担任副主席,无疑使联储的天平向更偏鸽派的方向倾斜。随着宏观经济形势和政治环境出现重大变化,美联储在1月突然宣布暂停加息,并且很可能在今年大部分时间按兵不动,不过这并不能排除年底或2020年再次加息的可能。无论如何,美国政策利率接近或略低于3%将成为新常态。


Over the past few years, the US Federal Reserve has been ahead of other major central banks in normalizing monetary policy. But now the Fed has abruptly put further interest-rate hikes on hold, owing to key changes in macroeconomic conditions and the political environment.

美联储近期做出了一项出乎市场意料的重大政策转变。 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC) 2018年12月开会时将政策利率上调至2.25-2.5%,并暗示将再加息三次至3%-3.25%,然后停止加息。其还暗示,将继续削减资产负债表规模,每月最多削减500亿美元。但仅仅6周后,在1月下旬的FOMC会议上,美联储暗示将在可预见的未来暂停加息,并在今年某个时候暂停缩表。

The US Federal Reserve surprised markets recently with a large and unexpected policy change. When the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met in December 2018, it hiked the Fed’s policy rate to 2.25-2.5%, and signaled that it would raise the benchmark rate another three times, to 3%-3.25%, before stopping. It also signaled that it would continue to unwind its balance sheet, by up to $50 billion per month. But just six weeks later, at the FOMC meeting in late January, the Fed indicated that it would pause its rate hikes for the foreseeable future and suspend its balance-sheet unwinding sometime this year.


Several factors drove the Fed’s volte-face. First and foremost, policymakers were rattled by the sharp tightening in financial conditions after the FOMC’s December meeting, which hastened a rout in global equity markets that had begun in October 2018. And these fears were exacerbated by an appreciating US dollar and the possibility of an effective shutdown of certain credit markets, particularly those for high-yield and leveraged loans.


Second, in the latter half of 2018, US core inflation unexpectedly stopped rising toward the Fed’s 2% target, and even started falling toward 1.8%. With inflation expectations weakening, the Fed was forced to reconsider its rate-hike plan, which was based on the belief that structurally low unemployment would drive inflation above 2%.

第三,美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的贸易战,以及欧洲、中国、日本和新兴市场增长放缓,都已点燃人们对美国自身增长前景的担忧,尤其是在新年伊始美国联邦政府陷入长期停摆之后。

Third, US President Donald Trump’s trade wars and slowing growth in Europe, China, Japan, and emerging markets have raised concerns about the United States’ own growth prospects, particularly after the protracted federal government shutdown with which the US met the New Year.


Fourth, the Fed has had to demonstrate its independence in the face of political pressures. In December, when it signaled further rate hikes, Trump had been calling for a pause. But since then, the Fed has had to worry about being blamed in the event of an economic stall.

第五,备受尊敬的经济学家和市场专家理查德•克拉里达(Richard Clarida)在2018年秋季加入美联储,担任副主席,使FOMC的天平向更偏鸽派的方向倾斜。在此之前,美联储主席杰罗姆•鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)本身的鸽派倾向一直受到没那么偏鸽派的同僚以及美联储三号人物、纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰•威廉姆斯(John Williams)的遏制。威廉姆斯认为,随着劳动力市场趋紧,通胀率将逐渐超过目标水平。

Fifth, Richard Clarida, a well-respected economist and market expert, joined the Fed Board as vice chair in the fall of 2018, tipping the balance of the FOMC in a more dovish direction. Before then, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s own dovish tendencies had been kept in check by a slightly less dovish staff and the third member of the Fed’s leadership troika, New York Fed President John Williams, who expected inflation to rise gradually above target as the labor market tightened.

在通胀停滞和金融环境收紧的背景下,克拉里达的加入无疑对美联储按动暂停按钮起到了决定性作用。不过,克拉里达似乎也以更微妙的方式推动美联储重拾鸽派立场。首先,他的出现支持了鲍威尔的观点,即菲利普斯曲线(该曲线显示通胀率和失业率之间存在反向关系) 趋平可能更多是结构性的,而非暂时性的。美联储的一些研究人员不同意这种观点,他们发表了一篇论文,称菲利普斯曲线的不确定性不应阻止美联储使美国货币政策正常化。但随着克拉里达的加入,美联储将更倾向于关注实际的通胀趋势,而不是传统模型所预示的官方失业率及其影响。

The addition of Clarida amid stalling inflation and tightening financial conditions no doubt proved decisive in the Fed’s decision to hit the pause button. But Clarida also seems to have pushed the Fed toward renewed dovishness in more subtle ways. For starters, his presence lends support to Powell’s view that the flattening of the Phillips curve (which asserts an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment) may be more structural than temporary. Some Fed researchers disagree, and have published a paper arguing that uncertainty with respect to the Phillips curve should not stop the Fed from normalizing US monetary policy. But with Clarida’s input, the Fed will be more inclined to focus on actual inflation trends, rather than on the official unemployment rate and its implications under traditional models.

此外,尽管美联储工作人员倾向于认为美国经济的潜在增长率很低(约1.75 - -2%),但对于特朗普的减税和放松监管政策以及下一轮技术创新将加强非通胀式增长的观点,克拉里达与鲍威尔一样持开放态度。

Moreover, while Fed staff members tend to believe that the US economy’s rate of potential growth is very low (around 1.75-2%), Clarida, like Powell, seems open to the idea that Trump’s tax cuts and deregulatory policies, combined with the next wave of technological innovation, will allow for somewhat stronger non-inflationary growth.


Finally, Clarida is spearheading an internal strategy review to determine whether the Fed should start making up for below-target inflation during recessions and slow recoveries by allowing for above-target inflation during expansionary periods. And though the review is still in its early stages, the Fed already seems to have embraced the idea that inflation should be allowed to exceed 2% without immediately triggering a tightening.


Taken together, these factors suggest that the Fed could remain in pause mode for the rest of 2019. After all, even a recent modest acceleration of wage growth does not seem to have produced higher inflation, implying that the Phillips curve may stay flatter for longer.


But while the Fed is most likely to remain in a holding pattern for the bulk of 2019, another rate hike toward the end of the year or in 2020 cannot be ruled out. China’s growth slowdown seems to be bottoming out, and recovery there could start to strengthen in the coming months, especially if the current Sino-American negotiations lead to a de-escalation of trade tensions. Likewise, a deal to avert an economically disastrous “hard Brexit” could still be in the offing, and it is possible that the eurozone’s slowdown – especially Germany’s – will prove temporary.


Moreover, global financial conditions are easing as a result of the Fed and other central banks’ renewed dovishness, and this could translate into stronger US domestic growth. Much will depend on whether Trump abstains from launching a separate trade war against the European auto industry, which would rattle equity markets again. Yet, barring more fights over the US federal budget and the debt ceiling – not to mention possible impeachment proceedings against Trump – the US could be spared serious domestic political and policy shocks in the months ahead.


If US GDP growth does remain resilient this year, some acceleration of wage growth and price inflation could follow, and core inflation may even rise above target in the second half of the year or 2020. And while the Fed seems willing to tolerate a period of temporary above-target inflation, it cannot allow that to become the new status quo. Should this scenario arise later in the year, or next year, the Fed could hike its baseline rate by another 25 basis points before settling into a protracted pause. Either way, the new normal will be a US policy rate close to or just below 3%.

注:纽约大学斯特恩商学院(Stern School of Business)教授、Roubini Macro Associates首席执行长鲁里埃尔•鲁比尼(Nouriel Roubini)曾在克林顿政府时期担任白宫经济顾问委员会(Council of Economic Advisers)负责国际事务的高级经济学家。他曾为国际货币基金组织、美联储和世界银行工作。(完)



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